XEQT Price Prediction 2036: What $500/Month Could Be Worth in 10 Years

My buddy Dave texted me at 11:30 on a Tuesday night. No context, no lead-in, just: “Where do you think XEQT will be in 10 years?”

I stared at the screen for a minute. Dave is the kind of guy who does deep-dive research before buying a toaster, so I knew this was not a casual question. He had probably been lying in bed, staring at his Wealthsimple app, working himself into a spiral about whether his $500/month XEQT contributions were actually going to amount to anything by the time he turned 45.

I typed back: “That’s the wrong question.”

He replied with three question marks.

So I called him. And what followed was a 40-minute conversation that I think every Canadian investor needs to hear – because “where will XEQT’s price be in 10 years?” is one of the most Googled questions about this fund, and also one of the most misleading. The share price of XEQT on any given day in 2036 does not tell you what your portfolio will be worth. What tells you that is how much you contribute, how consistently you contribute, and what the market returns over that period. Two of those three variables are entirely within your control.

This post is going to do what I did for Dave on that phone call: run the actual numbers. Three scenarios. Multiple contribution levels. Real math. No hype, no guarantees, just a clear-eyed look at what a decade of disciplined XEQT investing could realistically produce.

1. Why “XEQT Price Prediction” Is the Wrong Frame

Let me explain something that trips up a lot of new investors. When you Google “XEQT price prediction 2036,” you are implicitly asking: “What will one share of XEQT cost in 10 years?” And that number, by itself, is almost completely useless to you.

Here is why. Imagine two investors:

• Investor A buys one share of XEQT at $35 in 2026 and never invests another dollar. If XEQT’s share price reaches $65 by 2036, Investor A has made about $30. Nice. Not life-changing.
• Investor B invests $500 every single month into XEQT from 2026 to 2036. Over that decade, Investor B contributes $60,000 of their own money, buys shares at varying prices through dollar-cost averaging, and lets compounding do its work. By 2036, even under a conservative scenario, Investor B’s portfolio could be worth $80,000 to $100,000 or more.

Same ETF. Same time period. Wildly different outcomes. The difference is not the share price – it is the behaviour.

This is why I tell people to stop thinking about XEQT’s future price and start thinking about their future portfolio value. The share price is just one input. Your contributions, your consistency, and time in the market are the other inputs – and they matter far more than whether XEQT trades at $60 or $70 a share in 2036.

If you want to understand why XEQT is such a popular choice for this kind of set-it-and-forget-it approach, I have written extensively about the fund’s structure, holdings, and philosophy. But for this post, we are focused on one thing: the math of what consistent investing can produce over a decade.

2. Historical Context: What Has Global Equity Actually Returned Over 10-Year Periods?

Before we build any projections, we need a foundation. What does history tell us about 10-year returns from globally diversified equity portfolios?

XEQT itself has only existed since 2019, so we do not have a full 10-year track record for the fund specifically. But XEQT holds four underlying iShares index funds that together cover the entire global equity market – US, Canadian, international developed, and emerging markets. We can look at what a similar global equity allocation has returned over various rolling 10-year periods. For a more detailed breakdown, check out the XEQT returns by year page.

Here is what the data shows for a global equity portfolio weighted roughly like XEQT (heavy US, moderate international, some Canada, some emerging markets):

*Assumes $500/month contributions with returns applied monthly. All figures approximate and in Canadian dollars.

A few things jump out. First, the range is enormous. The worst 10-year period in recent memory (2000-2009, which included the dot-com crash and the Global Financial Crisis) produced a barely positive annualized return. The best period (2010-2019) delivered over 10% annualized. If you want to see how XEQT has handled the rough patches specifically, read the piece on XEQT performance during recessions.

Second, even in the worst-case scenario, a disciplined investor who kept contributing $500/month still ended the decade with more money than they put in. Not a great outcome, but not a catastrophe either. And in every other period, the outcome was meaningfully better.

Third, the most common outcome was somewhere between 7% and 10% annualized. That is the range we should anchor our expectations to – while acknowledging that the future could be better or worse.

3. Three Scenarios: Bearish, Base Case, and Bullish

Nobody knows what global equities will return over the next 10 years. Anyone who tells you they do is selling something. But we can build reasonable scenarios based on historical precedent and current conditions.

Here are the three I am going to use for every projection in this post:

Bearish: 4% Annualized

This is the “lost decade” scenario. Think Japan in the 1990s or the US from 2000 to 2009. In this world, we get some combination of persistent inflation, rising interest rates, geopolitical disruption, a major recession, and/or elevated valuations that compress over time. Global equity returns are positive but barely beat inflation. It has happened before and it can happen again.

Base Case: 7% Annualized

This is the long-term historical average for a globally diversified equity portfolio, nudged slightly conservative. Most financial planners and institutions use something in the 6-8% range for long-term equity projections. I am using 7% because I would rather be pleasantly surprised than bitterly disappointed.

Bullish: 10% Annualized

This is the “everything goes right” scenario. Strong global economic growth. AI-driven productivity gains that actually show up in corporate earnings. Favourable demographics in key markets. Continued innovation. A world that largely avoids catastrophic conflict. This is not impossible – it is roughly what global equities returned from 2010-2019.

Important disclaimer: These are projections, not predictions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Markets can and will do things that surprise everyone. These scenarios are meant to give you a range of reasonable outcomes, not a promise.

4. The $500/Month Table: Year-by-Year Portfolio Growth

This is the table Dave needed to see. If you invest $500 every single month into XEQT for 10 years, here is what your portfolio looks like at the end of each year under all three scenarios:

Read that bottom row carefully. In the base case, your $60,000 of contributions has grown to over $85,000. That is more than $25,000 in investment gains – money you did not have to earn at a job, money that showed up purely because you were consistent and patient. In the bullish scenario, you are approaching six figures from a $500/month habit.

Even in the bearish scenario – the lost decade, the worst-case outcome – you still end up with nearly $73,500. Your $60,000 still grew by over $13,000. That is not exciting, but it is a lot better than leaving it in a savings account earning 2-3% (which, after inflation, is effectively zero growth).

And here is the thing that really got Dave’s attention: these numbers do not include any lump-sum contributions, tax refunds invested, bonuses, or raises. This is just $500/month, rain or shine, for 10 years. Most people who stay disciplined end up contributing more over time, not less. Which brings us to the next table.

5. Different Contribution Amounts: What 10 Years of Consistency Produces

Not everyone can do $500/month. Some people can do more. Here is what different monthly contribution amounts look like after a full decade under each scenario:

Look at the $2,000/month row. In the base case, you have contributed $240,000 and ended up with over $340,000. That is a six-figure gain from compounding alone. In the bullish scenario, you are staring at nearly $400,000. That is a house down payment in most Canadian cities outside Toronto and Vancouver. That is a decade of financial freedom. That is options.

The point is clear: the single biggest lever you can pull is your contribution amount.

I have written an entire post about why your savings rate matters more than your returns. If this table does not convince you, that post will.

If you want to play with your own numbers, try the XEQT calculator to run custom scenarios with your specific contribution amount and timeline.

6. The Variable That Matters More Than Returns

Dave spent that entire phone call asking me about returns. “But what if XEQT only does 4%?” “What if it does 12%?” “What if there is a crash in year 3?”

I finally stopped him and said: “Dave, you are asking me about the one thing neither of us can control. Let me show you the one thing you can control.”

Here is a comparison that makes the point brutally clear:

Read that again. The investor contributing $800/month at a mediocre 4% return ends up with double the portfolio of the investor contributing $300/month at a fantastic 10% return. The higher saver wins – and it is not even close.

This is the most important insight in this entire post. In your first 10 years of investing, your contribution rate dominates your return rate. The math flips eventually – after 20 or 30 years, compounding takes over and returns start to matter more than new contributions. But for the next decade? The size of your monthly transfer to your XEQT account matters more than anything the market does.

So when you find yourself lying in bed at night wondering whether global equities will return 7% or 9% over the next decade, remember: that question is far less important than whether you can find an extra $200 or $300 a month to invest. Cancel a subscription. Negotiate your cell phone bill. Bring lunch to work twice a week. Those decisions will have a bigger impact on your 2036 portfolio than anything Jerome Powell or the Bank of Canada does between now and then.

7. What Could Derail the Base Case: Real Risks to Consider

I am an optimist about long-term global equity returns. But I am not delusional. There are real risks that could push us toward the bearish scenario – or worse. Here are the ones I think about:

Persistent inflation. If central banks cannot keep inflation near their 2% targets, real returns (returns after inflation) could be significantly lower than nominal returns. You might see your portfolio grow to $85,000 in nominal terms but only $65,000 in today’s purchasing power. This is why I use slightly conservative projections.

Elevated valuations. As of mid-2026, US equity valuations remain above their long-term averages. The Shiller CAPE ratio for the S&P 500 is elevated. History suggests that starting from high valuations often leads to lower-than-average returns over the following decade. Since XEQT is roughly 45% US equities, this matters.

Geopolitical disruption. A major escalation in US-China tensions, a broader conflict in Europe or the Middle East, or a fracturing of global trade relationships could create prolonged market volatility. XEQT’s global diversification helps here – you are not betting on any single country – but a truly global crisis would hit everything.

Demographic headwinds. Aging populations in Europe, Japan, and increasingly China could slow global economic growth. Fewer working-age people generally means slower GDP growth, which can translate to slower corporate earnings growth.

The AI productivity question. A lot of current market optimism is baked into the assumption that AI will drive massive productivity gains. If those gains take much longer than expected, some of the bullish case evaporates.

None of these risks are reasons to stop investing. Every decade has had its own set of terrifying risks, and long-term investors who stayed the course have been rewarded more often than not. But they are reasons to set reasonable expectations.

8. What Happened to People Who Tried to Time It

In early 2020, COVID-19 hit and global markets crashed roughly 30% in five weeks. XEQT dropped from around $22 to about $16. Plenty of Canadian investors panicked and sold. Others moved to cash and waited for “the bottom.” A smaller group kept buying $500/month like nothing had happened.

By year-end, XEQT had not only recovered but hit new highs. The investors who sold missed one of the fastest recoveries in stock market history. Many re-entered at higher prices than they sold at, locking in their losses permanently.

The same pattern repeated in 2022 with rising interest rates and again during the tariff volatility in early 2025. Every single time, the people who kept their automatic contributions running came out ahead.

Here is a simple comparison showing the cost of missing the market’s best days over a hypothetical 10-year period:

Missing just the 10 best trading days out of roughly 2,520 trading days over a decade drops your return from 7% to 4.2%. Missing the 30 best days – barely 1% of all trading days – reduces your return to essentially zero. And here is the cruel part: the best days almost always happen during or immediately after the worst days. If you sold during the panic, you almost certainly missed the recovery.

This is why dollar-cost averaging works so well as a strategy. You do not have to guess when to buy. You buy every two weeks or every month, regardless of what the market is doing. Some of those purchases will be at high prices. Some will be at low prices. Over a decade, you end up with a blended average that smooths out the volatility and keeps you in the game.

9. The Tax-Sheltered Bonus: These Numbers Get Even Better in a TFSA

One thing I did not factor into the tables above: tax-sheltered accounts. If you are investing your $500/month inside a TFSA, every single dollar of growth shown in those tables is tax-free. The $25,000+ in gains in the base case? You keep all of it. No capital gains tax. No tax on dividends. Nothing.

If you are using an RRSP, your contributions reduce your taxable income today and the investments grow tax-deferred. I have written a detailed comparison of XEQT in a TFSA vs. RRSP if you want to dig into which account makes more sense for your situation.

The point is: in a TFSA, the numbers in the tables above are also the after-tax numbers. The Canadian government is essentially saying: “We will let your investments compound for decades and never take a cut.” There are very few opportunities in life this generous. Use them.

10. Nobody Knows – And That Is Actually Fine

I ended the call with Dave the way I am going to end this post. I said: “I have no idea what XEQT will return over the next 10 years. Neither does anyone else. Not the analysts at BlackRock. Not the commentators on BNN. Not the Reddit gurus. Nobody.”

And then I said: “But I know exactly what I am going to do about it.”

I am going to keep buying XEQT every two weeks. I am going to keep my automatic contributions running through Wealthsimple. I am going to increase my contribution amount whenever I get a raise. I am going to ignore the noise – the crashes, the rallies, the “experts” calling for doom, the hot new thing everyone is excited about. I am going to do the boring thing, consistently, for a very long time.

Because here is what the data actually tells us: over every rolling 20-year period in modern market history, a globally diversified equity portfolio has delivered positive real returns. Every single one. The 10-year window has some rough patches, as we saw in the 2000-2009 table above. But even in that worst-case period, the disciplined investor who kept contributing still came out ahead.

The people who build real wealth in the stock market are not the ones who predicted the right price. They are the ones who showed up every month. They are the ones who treated investing like a utility bill – automatic, non-negotiable, boring. They are the ones who understood that the only prediction that matters is this one: if you invest consistently in a globally diversified portfolio for a decade, you will almost certainly end up with significantly more than you started with.

Dave texted me the next morning. “Set up $500/month automatic buy on Wealthsimple. See you in 2036.”

That is the only prediction I need.

Disclaimer: The projections in this post are hypothetical illustrations based on assumed rates of return. They are not predictions or guarantees of future performance. Actual returns will vary and may be higher or lower than the scenarios presented. Past performance of global equity markets does not guarantee future results. XEQT’s future returns depend on market conditions that cannot be predicted. This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a qualified financial advisor for advice tailored to your personal situation. The Wealthsimple referral link in this post provides a bonus to both you and the author.